Http://www.Voter.com October 1998
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Voter.com) - As Election Day nears, a not-so-scientific poll is being used to
predict the outcome of the 2000 presidential race. Customers of Political Americana, a
Washington, D.C. Gift shop specializing in campaign memorabilia, are casting their votes for the
next "Leader of the Free World" by purchasing presidential campaign buttons.
The computerized "Button Poll" - which keeps track of how many people buy each presidential
candidate's pins - may seem like a silly idea, but, more often than not, it has been in line with
mainstream poll results. In 1988 the Button Poll predicted the election results to within one
percentage point and in 1992 and 1996, the results were within two percentage points. The latest
numbers for Campaign 2000 show Al Gore leading with 50.9 percent of the sales, Bush with 47.2
percent and Pat Buchanan with 1.3 percent.
"It’s really amazing how accurate the Button Poll is," says Jim Warlick, the owner of Political
Americana. "Come Election Day, we are usually right on the money."
The little round circles with slogans, pictures and names have been used to promote candidates for
more than 100 years, but the idea for the Button Poll originated at the 1988 Iowa caucus. It was
there that Warlick, looking for a way to keep track of his sales of political trinkets, started noting
which candidates' buttons were selling the best. "Before I knew it CBS and NBC wanted to report
my results as news," Warlick remembers.
While it may sound silly, it can be argued that the Button Poll is a much more reliable barometer of
public opinion than many, more traditional polls. "The Button Poll weeds out the apathetic
people," says Warlick. "The people who buy buttons are passionate about their politics and they are
the ones who will, without a doubt, go out and vote. But who knows if a person who is randomly
called on the telephone is motivated enough to make it out to the polls."
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Voter.com) - As Election Day nears, a not-so-scientific poll is being used to
predict the outcome of the 2000 presidential race. Customers of Political Americana, a
Washington, D.C. Gift shop specializing in campaign memorabilia, are casting their votes for the
next "Leader of the Free World" by purchasing presidential campaign buttons.
The computerized "Button Poll" - which keeps track of how many people buy each presidential
candidate's pins - may seem like a silly idea, but, more often than not, it has been in line with
mainstream poll results. In 1988 the Button Poll predicted the election results to within one
percentage point and in 1992 and 1996, the results were within two percentage points. The latest
numbers for Campaign 2000 show Al Gore leading with 50.9 percent of the sales, Bush with 47.2
percent and Pat Buchanan with 1.3 percent.
"It’s really amazing how accurate the Button Poll is," says Jim Warlick, the owner of Political
Americana. "Come Election Day, we are usually right on the money."
The little round circles with slogans, pictures and names have been used to promote candidates for
more than 100 years, but the idea for the Button Poll originated at the 1988 Iowa caucus. It was
there that Warlick, looking for a way to keep track of his sales of political trinkets, started noting
which candidates' buttons were selling the best. "Before I knew it CBS and NBC wanted to report
my results as news," Warlick remembers.
While it may sound silly, it can be argued that the Button Poll is a much more reliable barometer of
public opinion than many, more traditional polls. "The Button Poll weeds out the apathetic
people," says Warlick. "The people who buy buttons are passionate about their politics and they are
the ones who will, without a doubt, go out and vote. But who knows if a person who is randomly
called on the telephone is motivated enough to make it out to the polls."
| "It’s really amazing how accurate the Button Poll is," says Jim Warlick, the owner of Political Americana. "Come Election Day, we are usually right on the money." |
